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http://www.lansai.wang/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022110218125194.png "logo")
玻璃期货逻辑行情
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玻璃期货逻辑行情1、供应端:冬季需求端地产韧性依旧,冬储补库周期启动前供应端压力仍存。2、库存端:社会库存下降较快,地产赶工节奏仍在,短期需求仍可期,但近期地产数据普遍走弱,后期订单继续下降的空间不大,下游采购不积极。3、利润端:随着地产调控升级,玻璃冷修范围不断扩大,未来生产线点火复产的概率大,库存去化或放缓,但在玻璃供应增加、需求在冷修的格局下,玻璃供需矛盾依然较浓,期货上涨或受到一定抑制。4、基差:现货价格坚挺,基差小幅走弱,期货大幅下跌。5、利润:当前市场情绪偏悲观,期货已提前反映真实需求,基差和现货价格价差持续走弱,玻璃现货大幅下跌或受到一定抑制。6、总结:成本高企、需求缓慢恢复,盘面受宏观情绪影响较大,同时受成本支撑,期价受现货大幅下跌的可能性较小。玻璃期货1905合约受现货拖累走势也较弱,近期将进入多空博弈的主导区间,目前看空逻辑已充分体现,不过在前期空头集中获利平仓后,空头资金平仓离场造成现货价格的大幅下跌,也给市场带来了一定压力。操作上,09合约谨慎做多。
THE END
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