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尿素期货行情走势
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尿素期货行情走势存在两方面的基本面,一是短期价格走势,二是出口预期。先说说关于进出口的影响。从这两个方面讲,尿素期货的走势有两个方面,一是出口,二是出口预期。大家可能还记得2012年的时候,根据中国海关总署的统计数据,2015年1-8月中国累计出口尿素约41.4万吨,累计同比下降17.5%,这与1-8月份产量低谷期间出口的水平一致。可见,进出口利多了市场,对尿素期货价格形成支撑。二是市场预期,从2014年开始,现货价格一直处于低位运行,期货价格也出现了下跌,这与去年以来尿素价格的回升有一定的关系,去年初就有一轮下跌,对于期货价格下跌有一定的预期,但由于前期下跌幅度很大,导致期货价格在较高的位置已经明显下跌,前期止跌,也没有止跌。在期货市场中,我们经常会看到近期期货价格下跌和现货价格下跌的同步程度。尿素期货价格的下跌主要就是来自于期货价格的回落,跌多了有止跌,也就会有期货价格的反弹。
近期的期货市场表现出了明显的旺季不旺的迹象,尤其是近期现货市场也是走低,虽然现货市场并没有出现这样的迹象,但期货价格下跌使得期货价格明显下跌。不过,我们知道,尿素期货价格上涨是因为预期等基本面因素的,所以期货价格下跌不大,这也使得期货价格上涨的力量减弱,因此我们认为下面的现货市场表现出现了利多的情况。
THE END
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