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http://www.lansai.wang/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022110218125194.png "logo")
豆粕期货行情
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豆粕期货行情和现货价格都受到天气的影响,美豆对巴西大豆的出口通常是由美国农业部播种面积调整,2021/22年度巴西大豆播种面积调整将为1549万公顷,低于5月预估的1043万公顷。相比之下,2021/22年度美豆的产量就相对来说有所降低,但是幅度不大。
一般来说,巴西大豆的收割期为3-5月,收获期的天气市影响大豆的收获进度,这段时间巴西大豆的优良率往往在70%左右,如果天气持续干旱,则巴西大豆的单产可能明显降低。
巴西大豆出口量减少将会对全球大豆市场带来较大影响。通常情况下,由于干旱造成大豆的产量下降,这对全球大豆市场的影响较大,其影响因素还包括了对生产者的影响、货币政策、进出口贸易的影响以及需求前景等。
大豆作为芝加哥期货交易所的农产品期货,其价格对现货价格的影响非常敏感,因此很多时候,大豆价格与大豆期价呈负相关关系。分析美豆期价走势的时候,我们会经常使用美国大豆作为市场价格的指标。
美豆期价对现货价格的影响主要表现在两个方面:一是美豆期价的变动。二是巴西大豆的种植面积。目前,巴西大豆的种植面积约占全国总种植面积的70%左右,播种面积的增减对期价的变动有着重要影响。
巴西大豆在南美大豆主产区有较大的种植面积,在北美大豆主产区有较高的种植面积,因此巴西大豆在美豆期价中的涨幅或许更为突出,但是巴西大豆却一直受到美国农业部的天气预报评级,天气预报对南美大豆的生产影响不大。
一般来说,南美大豆主产区的天气市影响大豆的收获进度,这将会对南美大豆生产造成一定影响。
THE END
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